Fornebu elevated APM : Time Schedule & Finance - InnoTrans - a consultancy dedicated to innovative solutions to economic transformation and development problems

(this means approximately 300 PRT vehicles - after full capacity around year 2013)

1 operation and maintenance centre (end of network, at “Norske Skog” or “Dumpa”)

Bidding Round
            March                                     Announcement
            May                                        Deadline
            July                                         Decision

Construction
2005   Fall                                         Preparations
2006   January                                  Start
2008   Fall                                         Finish

Finance of 25 year BOT

(Build – Operate - Transfer)
(Operation in addition to the 25 years will be considered, in due time)

The constructor and operator of the network will be a company registered in Norway (e.g. a Norwegian subsidiary).

600 mill. NOK (Norwegian crowns) guaranteed from Norwegian Government over the Road budget (for “alternative investment”)

+ 500 mill. from local property owners[1] approximately divided 50/50 between the Municipality of Oslo and Statsbygg (the main government construction company)

I.e. 45.45% vs. 54.55% distribution - between Government and local property owners

Income

Income will consist of payback of investment + ticket income + refunds from regional transport authority (additional 43 % based on ticketing income:
Approximately 20.000 trips per day – 3 km average, adult price 20 crowns)

Payback will be distributed over 25 years (whether evenly/unevenly - still not known)

First 5 years will likely give a fixed income – more or less irrespective of the number of passengers (due to lower traffic potential).

Comment – on the last events (March 2004)

On the government budget for 2004, Akershus County has received from the government an additional 2 mill NOK (ca. $ 0.3 mill ) for proceeding with the planning process for the Fornebu track.

Febr. 10th, the Mayors of Akershus County, the Municipality of Baerum and the neighbouring Municipality and County of Oslo sent a letter to the Secretary of Transportation confirming that they had agreed and that Oslo agreed to the plans of Akershus County to build an elevated APM in Akershus County (at Fornebu, in the Municipality of Baerum, just outside Oslo).

This agreement was an explicit premise for government support, administratively and financially.

Therefore, Feb. 11th, in Parliament, the Secretary of Transportation confirmed that 600 mill NOK (ca. $ 90 mill ) will be allotted for construction of the Fornebu track from the Norwegian government :

Furthermore, Oslo has agreed to pay 250 mill NOK as half of the contribution from the property owners for the APM track. Another 250 mill will come from Statsbygg (the main governmental construction company).

Akershus has sent her proposal for an APM system to the DOT and NB: This specifically includes PRT - as one type of the wanted “light” i.e. elevated APM technology (Automated People Mover).

The question of bus as an alternative is thereby history (after massive protests both from politicians, transport experts etc).

The question of light rail as an alternative is still being fought for by the traditionalists, but after Oslo "surrendered" (and thereby surrendered also the company that runs Oslo Metro and Light Rail), it seems like elevated APM has finally won the day.

So, during 2004, the elevated APM plans will be in the process of a administrative "quality check", by the DOT (Department of Transportation), both concerning technology and costs. One question for us is whether PRT will be kept as an option.

The process is now awaiting government technical approval and also waiting for the actual government financial contribution, due in November 2004. This means that the whole process will go on for another year before a final conclusion is conclusively arrived at.

PRT may facilitate and speed up the process

The economics- and efficient network aspects are our best cards, and may speed up the process.

Although $ 90 mill will be allotted for construction, the project will still go the lowest price from a quality bidder, including both cost of construction and cost of O&M.

According to my calculations with the new traffic data , the price for O&M mentioned ($ 1,50 per trip) will be sufficient for both construction and O&M, with a 25 year contract. This means that we can build it "for free" and they can keep the $ 90 mill. for ‘schools and pensions’ etc.

Alternatively, we can build them a major network as along as they guarantee a minimum income. Most likely they will never have to pay anything since the traffic is so dense that the PRT system will pay its own expenses.

This means that if we can get our system approved we won't have to wait for government finance and we can speed up the process accordingly.

All parties (!) of Akershus County now agree on an elevated APM solution. The last adherents of a light rail solution changed their point of view after realising that what is needed is not a parallel light rail track towards Oslo along with the 8 existin and påladded tracks (2 existing heavy rail tracks + another planned 2 tracks, 1 light rail track and 3 metro tracks). The Municipality of Baerum needs cross-connections between the existing railroad, metro- and light rail tracks. This means networking and this is of course where PRT excels.

Coming sports / cultural events arena: Stabæk Stadion

There are also very concrete plans of a major sports / cultural events arena on the Fornebu peninsula for a major sports and culture stadium for 16.000 people.

The plans are to position this stadium in the core area of the planned Fornebu track. Most users will come from the interior of the municipality, which today is poorly connected. That will demand a public transit system with capacity and connections towards the North-West (Stabæk-Bekkestua) that have not been considered so far by the transit authorities, although mentioned as a top priority in the long term County plans. This means that the mentioned cross-connections and a new network will be even more important. A PRT system could adapt to this easily.

Extensions – with PRT?

Local extensions are prone in the immediate future, and could be handled with the much cheaper and efficient PRT technology.

1. A connection is being planned to the closeby metro track ("Kolsåsbanen") almost as long as the planned Fornebu track itself.

The track will be within the Oslo County from the Bjørnsletta station down to the Lysaker hub of the “Fornebubanen” APM/PRT and may include the Lilleaker lilght rail hub.

The connection may be financed from the “left overs” after building the “Fornebubanen” APM/PRT.

2). There is also the matter of a possible reconstruction of the Kolsaas metro, which needs a complete rebuilding. This old metro track ("Kolsåsbanen") has been closed, due to major need of maintenance and disagreement over O&M costs.

3). A long planned extension (to Rykkin) has never been realised. Today, private cars have taken over most some of this traffic, and the rest is done by buses.

4). Possible connections from the APM to other transport hubs like Rolfsbukta and Godthåb ferryports, and a completion of the “ring-track” on the Fornebu peninsula.

5) There may be built extensions to the more local transport hubs within the next decade: Skøyen, Stabæk (in addition to Rolfsbukta, Godthåb, Lilleaker).

6) Possible future networks and interconnections in Oslo : Bjørvika, Lodalen, Ensjøbyen, Stensrud, Svartskog etc. etc.

7) Possible future systems in other Norwegian towns and in several cases with advanced planning already done:
Bergen (90 km), Trondheim, Kristiansand, Stavanger, Skien-Porsgrunn.

Some have confused the planned automated Fornebu track with the reconstruction of the Kolsaas metro track, also in the Baerum Municipality. And some have thought that this was a second APM being planned.

However, the latter Kolsaas track is an entirely different issue run over completely different budget.

Keep them apart: WE are dealing only with the one Fornebu track, nothing else.

[1] The reason 600+500 million crowns ($ 81+68 millions) was chosen was that the politicians were misled by the railway authorities to believe that they could build a 3 km heavy rail track for this price (all underground, going under a 2x4 lane highway, even beneath Sea Level in a weak type of rock, and as Ray MacDonald said: “3 times the price would be more likely.”)

Network Essentials

Time Schedule

Finance of 25 year BOT

Income

Comment – on the last events (March 2004)

PRT may facilitate and speed up the process

Coming sports / cultural events arena: Stabæk Stadion

Extensions – with PRT?