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Risk Assessment and Risk Reduction Strategy
- of the Sportaxi at Fornebu project:
In order to maximise reliability and minimise costs, in particular development costs, the technology of Norsk Sportaxi a.s. is based on conservative simplicity. This means standard off-the-shelf technology and prefabricated elements consisting of, for instance, supporting guidelines, rubber wheels and synchronous engines.
The greatest risk factors of the project are, however, not related to the investments in material stock - such as guide lines, stations, vehicles and computing system - which make up some 100 % of the those costs. Instead the largest risk factor is development costs. We have, therefore, added 100 % to the material costs to make up for development costs - even under the circumstance that we have pressed forwards towards simple off-the-shelf technical solutions.
The largest risk factor of the development costs is related to the computing system. This is why this project more than anything is an IT-project more than regular transit project. We have therefore allied ourselves with experienced partners in this area - in the US, Sweden and Norway: Taxi2000 (Minnesota), LogistikCentrum (Gothenburg-Stockholm) and Norsk Regnesentral (Norwegian Computing Central - in Oslo).
On the income side, the largest risk factor is density of development and therefore traffic derivated income: ticket sales. The income risk is not likely to be of any great magnitude since the area will be densily populated and trafficated whatever development is chosen. Real traffic is therefore likely to be close to our low estimate during the first few years, and then increase to - and possibly go beyond - our highest estimate.